In what has already been billed as the David vs. Goliath battle, Butler takes on Duke tomorrow night for the championship. Although I don't feel like either team deserves a championship this year, that's how it has all shaken down. Both teams have gotten lucky on their run to this game but that is what it takes. Butler played against two teams that you could consider at full strength and Duke has played against one team in Baylor and got some very questionable officiating down the stretch. Granted, this is coming from a huge UNC fan so you can take it as you will. I'm going to give you a breakdown of how the teams stack up and what my prediction is for the game.
Guards
This is a lot closer than many people like you to believe. Scheyer and Smith average more points than Mack and Nored but you have to look at the whole picture. Duke is an up and down, shoot it in your face team while Butler is content grinding it out until the end. Butler is a tremendous perimeter defensive team and won't let Duke get a lot of the easy shots that they got against West Virginia. And if Butler doesn't get in their face and stop the shooting barrage, it will be a long night for the Bulldogs. Advantage: Duke
Forwards
This again is pretty close. Veasley against Singler, Hayward against Thomas. Veasley is going to be a mismatch against either on the defensive end but should be able to score on either of them on offense. Hayward is a special player and I don't know if there is a defender in the nation that could shut him down. Problem is that Duke doesn't play defense with just one player and it is going to be 5 men looking to stop him. However, Michigan State, Kansas State and Syracuse all play great team defense and they are all sitting at home watching the game. Hayward has been the star of stars. Advantage: Butler
Center/Post
Howard isn't really a center but he is going to be forced into that role Monday. Zoubek is huge, plays great interior defense, and shoots a high percentage. Howard is a bit undersized, banged up and might not even play, but he is a scrapper and won't give Zoubek an inch. If Howard can't play, this is going to be a long day for Butler. Advantage: Duke
Bench
If you haven't heard all the talk about "The Big Three," get ready to hear about it a lot during the game. There is a reason they have received that nickname...there isn't a lot left over for scoring besides them. Duke has 7 or 8 players that will most likely see the court and don't have much for guard bench play. Butler doesn't get a lot of box score numbers from their bench, but if you have seen any of their games this year, you know that Butler's calling card is their defense and not if they can score 80 points or not. Their bench runs 9 deep and get the production necessary out of each player. If Duke's guards get in foul trouble, don't expect them to be holding the trophy. Advantage: Butler
Coaching
Neither team would likely be in this game if not for their coaching staffs. Coach K has been doing it for a lot longer than Brad Stevens but Baby-face Brad is no slouch. I don't think that either coach will determine this game because they are both too good to make a mistake but its hard to argue against the soon to be all time wins leader. Advantage: Duke
Intangibles
Butler is the feel good story of the tournament. The Cinderella who is not a Cinderella. The crowd is going to be full of Butler fans and most likely more than a couple of Duke-Haters. Neither team is going to get outworked by the other and emotions will be high for both sides, but that Hoosier crowd is going to make a difference. Advantage: Butler
Final Breakdown
The only way in which this is a David vs. Goliath match up is in the history of the programs because these teams are pretty equal. Many people will like to think that because Duke came out of the ACC that they are by far the better team. Although a "Mid-Major" (disgusting word) Butler is different from many of the other small schools. Just remember that it wasn't too terribly long ago that Duke was the Butler of college basketball.
Duke is going to try to keep the game at a solid up and down tempo but don't be surprised to have this game scoring in the 60 point range. Fans of physical tough nosed defense are going to enjoy this game. I think that its going to start off with a lot of feeling out in the first half and the action picking up in the 2nd half. Duke has the offense, Butler is going to supply the defense. Look for Hayward to score 25 points, grab 10 boards, win the MVP award, and lead his team to the upset. Butler-67 Duke-63
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