With news coming in heavy about another potential Big Ten expansion member (this time Texas), I thought it would be a great time to weigh in with my opinion. As a student of a Big Ten school, the University of Minnesota, I feel that adding a 12th member would be great. Good things always come in 12's: muffins, days of Christmas, Ocean's Twelve, and most importantly, The 12th Man...in the Huddle. Either expand or the Big Ten Commission could just do the right thing and shut down Wisconsin. With that occurrence seemingly unlikely, the best option would be to steal a team from another conference. The obvious choice would be Notre Dame, but other possibilities include Rutgers, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Nebraska, and Texas.
Notre Dame - Notre Dame is the team that is favored by the BTC (Big Ten Commission) and also the team that makes the most sense. With the strong academic record, huge endowments, a large fan base, and an athletic department with proven success, it seems like all that should be necessary is signing on the dotted line. They already play many of the Big Ten teams and the location of the university would make traveling easy. However, the Fighting Irish enjoy being an independent, meaning they don't have to share revenues and can sign with a national TV network. Rather than playing in one of the most prestigious conferences, Notre Dame will most likely continue to deny all conference offers until the TV deals stop coming. I would place the odds of them joining at 20:1 unless the Big Ten steps up their efforts to secure this big win.
Rutgers - Although Rutgers is a fine academic institution and have had some success in the athletic department, but not as much as their competition, they don't bring the large amounts of endowment that other Big Ten school obtain. Considering that Iowa has the lowest amount at about $1.0 billion, Rutgers would be by far the least endowed school in the conference. This would would seem to be a bad business strategy for the Big Ten because they have been doing fine without the 12th team for 20 years. The BTC is more than likely to approve of one of the big money schools before they look to accept Rutgers. Odds for them would be about 10:1.
Missouri - The Mizzou Tigers have been the team that has been tossed around as the most likely suitor for the 12th spot. However, they don't belong to many of the academic organizations that the Big Ten schools are involved with so it remains to be seen how that will be treated. Mizzou has a perfect location so travel would be easy, endowments are fairly relative to the current schools, and athletically they would fit right into the mix. I would place Missouri towards the top of the list and have their odds at 5:1 to join.
Pittsburgh - Pitt is another school that is definitely in the mix to join. They stack up well with every category that the BTC will be looking at. High academic record, strong athletic programs, large market for the Big Ten Networks expansion, and equally large funds coming in. This would bring Penn States rival back into the same conference and that would finally appease Joe Paterno. The only knock that can be found for them is the fact that many Big Ten purists want to keep the conference in the mid-west and stop the expansion out east. Another issue is the Big East requires a 27-month notice before a team leaves. If Pitt is indeed the team, they will have to notify the Big East sometime soon so that a Big Ten Championship can be in place for 2012. Pitt would probably be my favorite team to join besides Notre Dame and I would give them the odds at 4:1.
Cincinnati - Personally, I don't see Cincy matching with the Big Ten at all. They haven't even been a BCS school for that long, since 2005, and are trying to move to the best conference out there. I just added them to the list because of the rumors about them being a team considered. The Big Ten already has the best team in Ohio with the Buckeyes and nothing else besides location ties Cincy in. Odds are at 20:1 with the only chance being if the Big Ten decided to become the Big Sixteen or if they got denied by every other university on this list.
Nebraska - The 'Huskers have a solid program in football and match up very well with what the Big Ten is searching for. They have great athletic programs all around, however, their men's basketball program is extremely lacking, and more than likely, the Big Ten also wants a team that can compete in the second largest of college athletics. Northwestern would love it because they wouldn't be the only team left in the conference never to have won an NCAA tournament game. It depends on what they are looking for, but there seem to be strong options out there than Nebraska at this point. Chances for them would be about 10:1.
Texas - Texas would be the prized gem for the committee if Notre Dame is impossible to coerce. They have huge funds, a national powerhouse in football, a basketball program that is on the rise, strong academics, and an enormous fan base. So what is the problem with Texas? They are in Texas. This rumor is probably completely false and will likely never happen. It looks all and well for the football and basketball programs, but what about travel for the smaller athletic teams? It would be costly for travel. Also, I have a feeling that the Longhorns would be a little bit afraid of the snow come fall. Big Ten teams have different teams than most universities down south. Winter weather plays a major role in recruiting and Mack Brown would be none too pleased to have to tell star recruits that 2 times a year they would have to play in temperatures that dip below freezing. Also, why would they choose to get rid of the huge rivalries that they have with the Big 12 teams? Going after Texas makes as much sense as if they went after Florida or USC. I'm not even going to put odds on this one because there is a 0% chance of it going through.
For all you non-math majors out there, I have a calculation of 75% of the Big Ten making an announcement for expansion this year. I would give it 20% of non-expansion, 3% of finding a team that isn't on this list, and a 2% chance of taking on 3 or 5 teams to become the Big Fourteen/Sixteen. The most interesting thing to me is the fact that if they pick up only one more team, they still won't have a name for the conference. Being the Big Ten with eleven teams is silly enough, but what happens if they get that 12th team? Some of the teams would eliminate the hope of being called the Midwest Conference and the Big 12 is already taken. If they do reach this obstacle, I would definitely recommend The 12th Team...in the Conference. If this blog achieves nothing else I hope that it will land me on the Big Ten/Ten+2/Fourteen/Sixteen's naming commission.
Future Big Ten Name Commissioner,
Derek
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